It was 1906. A statistician named Francis Galton conducted a mathematical experiment in Plymouth England while attending what we would call a ‘county fair’. There was a dead ox that was dressed up for the event. A crowd of close to 800 had gathered. The crowd was asked to guess the weight of the ox. The average – or mean – of the collective guesses was 1197 pounds. Turns out, the actual weight of the ox was 1198 pounds. The crowd’s average guess was remarkably accurate. From that came the theory now referred to as ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’.
The takeaway is simply that a group of people will more often make a better decision – or be more effective in solving a problem – than a single individual. This guides us as managers and leaders to tackle problems we need to solve, or decisions we need to make, with a mindset toward involving those we are leading. Sounds basic, but worth our contemplation.
Sure, there are exceptions. Critics might look at the Wisdom of Crowds as risky business given the practice can lead to ‘frozen leadership’ – or someone’s inability to make a decision without first asking others for their point of view. Or, putting emphasis on group input can sometimes lead to group think. Maybe so. I’ll talk about group think in a subsequent post.
But for now, The Wisdom of Crowds deserves its day in the sun. Its central thrust is legitimate and worthy of our consideration when making decisions in the workplace. Being the leader doesn’t mean we have to make the decisions in isolation. We’re expected to make the right decision. That’s what matters. And, the learnings from The Wisdom of Crowds tells us the right decision may best come from the input of a crowd. I’ll let you decide what ‘a crowd’ means. Good luck. (www.pauldineenterprises.com)
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